China Manufacturing Industry Observation in November 2022

In November 2022, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry continued to weaken, and the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.0% , down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and below the critical point for two consecutive months. The downward pressure on the manufacturing industry has increased. As the epidemic has had an adverse impact on the production and operations of some enterprises, both production and demand continued to maintain a slowdown trend. Among them, the production index was 47.8%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be below the critical point; the new order index was 46.4% , a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export orders index was 46.7%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. In addition, the PMI of enterprises of different sizes fell. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 49.1%, 48.1% and 45.6% respectively, down 1.0, 0.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. They continued to be below the critical point, mainly due to the lack of funds. Tense and insufficient market demand, especially small enterprises, are under great pressure on production and operation.

From an industry perspective, several key industries in the manufacturing industry showed the following characteristics in November:

●Automobile production and sales are generally lower than expected, and new energy vehicles continue to hit new highs

With the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the epidemic on the automobile consumer market, in November , automobile production and sales were slightly weak, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines. The downward trend was obvious, and the overall performance was lower than expected. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars fell by more than 7% month-on-month, and also showed a certain decline year-on-year; commercial vehicles continued to hover at low levels, showing a double-digit decline year-on-year; new energy vehicle production and sales and automobile exports continued to maintain a good trend.

According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in November 2022, my country's automobile production and sales reached 2.386 million units and 2.328 million units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and 7.1%, respectively. down 7.9%. Compared with last year and the year before that, there was no tail-off at the end of previous years. Passenger car production and sales completed 2.151 million units and 2.075 million units respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.8% and a 7% decrease respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% and 5.6% respectively. The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 235,000 and 253,000 respectively, down 11.2% and 7.5% month-on-month, and 33.4% and 23.4% year-on-year. New energy vehicles continued to maintain rapid growth, with monthly production and sales hitting new highs, reaching 768,000 units and 786,000 units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 65.6% and 72.3%, respectively, and the market share reaching 33.8%.

Automobile exports still maintain a high level. In November 2022, automobile companies exported 329,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5% and a year-on-year increase of 64.8%.

●Month-on-month decline, the steel industry is operating under pressure

From this According to data released by the Wulian Steel Logistics Professional Committee, the steel PMI in November was 40.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.2 percentage points, and a month-on-month decrease for 2 consecutive months. The steel industry is operating under pressure. According to the changes in sub-indexes: steel demand has declined overall, and the production side has also declined. Steel prices have bottomed out and raw materials have also declined overall. Among them, the new order index in November was 34.5%, a decrease of 8.9 percentage points from the previous month; the production index was 39.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been at a low level below 40% for 2 consecutive months; the raw material purchase price index was 38%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points, and a month-on-month decrease for three consecutive months. The reasons are: stricter environmental protection production restrictions and declining demand; frequent outbreaks of epidemics have inhibited factory operations and construction sites in some areas; and the gradual deepening of winter has led to seasonal decline in demand. In addition, as the main steel square The real estate industry is operating weakly, and its support for steel demand continues to weaken; the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, declining production and other factors.

● Sales volume increased, and the construction machinery industry delivered outstanding results

In November, most projects Machinery sales increased year-on-year, especially excavators, with sales becoming the month with the highest year-on-year growth rate from January to November 2022. According to statistics from 26 excavator manufacturing companies from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 23,680 excavators of various types were sold in November, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. Sales growth has maintained positive growth for four consecutive months. Among them, the domestic market sales were 14,398 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%. The sales growth rate has increased month by month for three consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales has turned positive for the first time since April 2021; export sales were 9,282 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%.

Loader sales also stopped falling and increased. According to statistics from 22 loader manufacturing companies from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 13,582 loaders of various types were sold in November 2022, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. Among them, 10,075 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%; 3,507 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%.

Judging from the operating data, according to the operating hours data of Komatsu excavators released by Komatsu. Data shows that in November 2022, China’s Komatsu excavator startedThe number of working hours was 97.9 hours, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%. This was the ninth consecutive month of year-on-year decrease. In November, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators decreased year-on-month, and the decline expanded. This shows that the frequent epidemics in various places have had a great impact on the start of the project.

●The impact of the epidemic was obvious, and textile supply and demand continued to weaken

In November, the demand for textile downstream was sluggish, and the market continued to Affected by the epidemic, many terminal markets were closed. As finished product inventories increased, some yarn mills chose to reduce operating rates to reduce inventory pressure. The development of the textile and apparel industry faced tremendous pressure. In November, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 33.44%, a decrease of 5.25 percentage points from the previous month. Looking specifically at the sub-indicators, this month's new orders index, production volume index, and operating rate index all continued the downward trend of last month. Among them, the declines in the new orders and operating rate indexes narrowed, and the decline in the production volume index expanded; the cotton yarn inventory index increased The range narrowed, and the cotton inventory index turned from falling to rising.

In terms of exports, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China, my country's textile and apparel exports in November were US$24.386 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.62% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.55%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) was US$11.267 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.82%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.90%; the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was US$13.120 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.45%. A month-on-month decrease of 3.92%.

●The growth rate of the added value of high-tech manufacturing reached a record low, but new energy products maintained rapid growth

November The added value of high-tech manufacturing industry slowed rapidly to 2.0% year-on-year, which was the lowest value since the data was released in September 2018. The main reason was the weakening of exports. Among them, the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry fell by 4.2%.

However, new energy and new kinetic energy products maintain a rapid growth trend. According to the National Bureau of Statistics: In November, the production of new energy products maintained a high speed, with the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 60.5% year-on-year, and the output of new energy products such as charging piles, photovoltaic cells, and wind turbines increasing by 69.0%, 68.6%, and 50.7% respectively; new The production of material products accelerated at a high level. The output of ultra-white glass, polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon and other products for solar industry increased by 110.3%, 103.4%, and 77.4% respectively, 30.3, 7.2, and 17.5 percentage points faster than in October; high-tech products grew rapidly. , mobile communication base station equipment, civil aircraft, civil drones and other productsProduct output increased by 41.2%, 30.8%, and 24.3% respectively.

According to industrial production data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 2.2% year-on-year, down 2.8 percentage points from October. Overall, in November, the epidemic affected a wide range of areas and industrial production fell back. However, the steady industrial growth pattern did not change. Construction machinery continued to improve and the growth of new driving forces demonstrated resilience. With the implementation of optimization measures for epidemic prevention and control and various measures to stabilize the economy, the industrial economy is expected to continue to recover.